The danger of asteroids to the earth. Asteroids that pose a serious threat to Earth

Between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, approximately 4,000 huge rocks move around the Sun. Scientists call them asteroids, or minor planets. Asteroids noticeably different from each other in size. Some have a diameter of only a few meters, others have much more impressive dimensions. Largest asteroid– It would be hard to call Ceres a “stone”. After all, its diameter is 1000 kilometers, which is approximately equal to the distance from Moscow to Rostov-on-Don. However, Ceres is officially considered a dwarf planet according to the new classification (as of 08/24/06). Where did this swarm of heavenly wanderers come from?

Is Ceres an asteroid or a dwarf planet?

Scientists believe that asteroids arose from the same material from which planets like Earth or Mars arose. However, the giant Jupiter flying in a neighboring orbit did not allow this cosmic trifle to merge into big planet– its gravitational force is too great.

Not all asteroids "live" inside the belt. Some of them move around the Sun in elliptical, that is, highly elongated orbits and sometimes fly dangerously close to the Earth. The huge craters that can be seen on the Moon even with small binoculars are traces of collisions with large space rocks.

On the planet closest to the Sun, Mercury, there is a so-called Caloris Basin. This is the impact of a 100-kilometer asteroid. The shock wave ran across the entire surface of the planet, after which Mercury was covered with rings of mountains.

Traces of cosmic catastrophes have been preserved on Earth. Geologists have discovered traces of a huge asteroid impact at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. 65 million years ago a giant with a diameter of 30 kilometers crashed into the Earth. A giant flash flashed over the planet. Thousands of tons of water and soil rose into the air. Due to clouds of dust in the atmosphere, sunlight almost stopped reaching the Earth, and the climate changed dramatically. It was then, according to scientists, all the dinosaurs died and many other animals and plants, which until then felt at ease on Earth.

From time to time, asteroids collide with the Earth. The smallest of them can fall to the surface of our planet about once every 100 years, and their impacts are most often taken by the ocean floor or sparsely populated parts of the land. However, an encounter with an asteroid even 2 kilometers in diameter can bring very serious trouble to the Earth and people. Even if it doesn't fall on some big city (as usually shown in science fiction films on this topic), the Earth's climate is likely to change dramatically, and this could cause the death of millions of people.

Today for everyone "suspicious" Asteroids whose orbit passes near our planet are closely monitored by telescopes. So far we have not been able to seriously detect anything threatening. But if it turns out that a collision with a giant stone is inevitable, you may have to urgently look for a means to repel "attack". Perhaps such a means will be nuclear missile weapons, or super-powerful laser guns, which, however, have yet to be created.

Wolf Creek Crater in Australia.

Appeared in Australia 10,000 years ago. He still looks "like New". But Gluboky Deer Lake Bay in Canada- this is a trace of an asteroid collision that occurred 150 million years ago. During this time, the crater was severely destroyed and its true origin was learned only in 1957.

Most asteroids, like the Earth's crust, are made of iron. Small planets also contain more valuable metals - copper, cobalt and nickel. Perhaps in the future people will learn "tow" asteroids into low-Earth orbit and extract minerals from them.

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The problem of asteroid danger- this is an aspect of a global nature associated with the threat of a collision with the Earth of one or more asteroids, which under current conditions would become inevitable, and in its consequences would be comparable to a limited thermonuclear war. About tens of thousands of asteroids regularly approach our planet - the only question of time is when and in what place the impact will occur. Despite the seriousness of the threat and catastrophic possible consequences The Earth is ill-prepared for a potential impact. Even experts have only great difficulty in calculating the trajectories of space debris.

In March 2014, a group of scientists led by Alan Harris ( Alan Harris ) began experiments to simulate the end of the world. This researcher heads international project asteroid protection called " NeoShield "("New Shield"), carried out at the German Aviation and Space Center ( DLR ). By the way, the essence of the experiments is not as terrible as one might imagine, judging by their focus: the researchers in the laboratory simply fire gas guns at artificial mini-asteroids. After the shelling, they monitor the damage caused. Maybe one day these experiments will help save the world from a collision with some alien from the Universe: in any case, Harris says that we must study the composition of asteroids in more detail in order to be able to deflect them from their orbits.

Over 600 thousand asteroids have already been discovered in the Solar System. At least tens of thousands of them approach the Earth with a certain periodicity. These so-called “near-Earth objects” (NEOs) are of great concern to experts. Their collision with our planet would lead to catastrophic consequences, but we are still almost unprepared for this.

The reality of the asteroid danger is also evidenced by the huge craters on the Moon, which can be observed every night on its surface with the naked eye. More recently, on September 11, 2013, another asteroid weighing 400 kg and the size of a household refrigerator crashed into the Earth’s natural satellite, flying at a speed of 61,000 km/h. After himself, he left a crater with a diameter of about 40 meters.

However, experts did not expect this collision. According to José Madiedo ( José Madiedo ) from the Andalusian University of Huelva, Spain, “observing asteroids is difficult.” This astronomer personally witnessed the collision of space debris with the Moon. “Most of them have a very dark surface. Therefore, you can only see them when they are large enough and relatively close.”

Recently, a 270-meter asteroid flew near the Earth (2000 E.M. 26) called "Moby Dick" ( Moby Dick ) – in any case, there is such an assumption. It was opened in 2000, and according to calculations, it was supposed to return in February 2014. However, when astronomers pointed their telescopes at its supposed flyby zone, they saw nothing. Moby Dick has disappeared. According to Alan Harris, this happens. “Suppose some observatory detects an asteroid. After this, several hours of observation are required in order to calculate its flight trajectory. And only then can we roughly predict where he will be in the coming night.

Starting on the second night, scientists can calculate its location until next week, then several months in advance. If there is bad weather during this period, then everything will go down the drain. Then not a single telescope in the world will have a single chance of seeing the discovered asteroid again.” Flying observatories are also capable of tracking only a small portion of space debris.

For those who fear the threat, Harris reassures with mathematical calculations: “If we detect an asteroid only a year before it approaches Earth, then this means that it must be quite small.” According to the scientist’s forecasts, “we would have seen an asteroid large enough to harm our planet 10-20 years before its approach.”

According to astrophysicist Mario Triloff ( Mario Trieloff ) from the University of Heidelberg, really large debris is actually quite rare: "asteroids twice as large are 10 times rarer." There are about a thousand asteroids that are larger than 1 kilometer in size and at the same time cross the Earth’s orbit.

They are large enough to be potentially dangerous to us - larger ones could cause a nuclear winter. Triloff claims that "90 percent of them are known to scientists." None of these large cosmic bodies will most likely collide with the Earth in the next 100 years, even if they fly quite close to it.

But what if some larger debris actually threatens to collide with our planet? After all, there is still no space mission that would actually test anti-asteroid defense technology. International coordination of efforts to achieve such protection has been too slow, and the “saviors of the world” risk plunging into a jungle of acronyms: SMPAG (Space Mission Planning and Consulting Group), IAWN (International network asteroid warnings), UNCOPUOS (UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space) are just a few of the organizations that bring together asteroid experts.

The Earth can be threatened by objects that approach it at a distance of at least 8 million kilometers and are large enough not to be destroyed when entering the planet’s atmosphere. They pose a danger to our planet.

1. Apophis

Until recently, the asteroid Apophis, discovered in 2004, was called the object with the most high probability collisions with the Earth. Such a collision was considered possible in 2036. However, after Apophis passed by our planet in January 2013 at a distance of about 14 million km. NASA specialists have reduced the likelihood of a collision to a minimum. The chances, according to Don Yeomans, head of the Near-Earth Object Laboratory, are less than one in a million.

However, experts have calculated the approximate consequences of the fall of Apophis, whose diameter is about 300 meters and weighs about 27 million tons. So the energy released when a body collides with the Earth’s surface will be 1717 megatons. The strength of the earthquake within a radius of 10 kilometers from the crash site can reach 6.5 on the Richter scale, and the wind speed will be at least 790 m/s. In this case, even fortified objects will be destroyed.

Asteroid 2007 TU24 was discovered on October 11, 2007, and already on January 29, 2008 it flew near our planet at a distance of about 550 thousand km. Thanks to its extraordinary brightness - 12th magnitude - it could be seen even in medium-power telescopes. Such a close passage of a large celestial body from the Earth - a rare event. The next time an asteroid of the same size will approach our planet will only be in 2027.

TU24 is a massive celestial body comparable to the size of the University building on Vorobyovy Gory. According to astronomers, the asteroid is potentially dangerous because it crosses the Earth's orbit approximately once every three years. But, at least until 2170, according to experts, it does not threaten the Earth.

Space object 2012 DA14 or Duende belongs to the near-Earth asteroids. Its dimensions are relatively modest - a diameter of about 30 meters, a weight of approximately 40,000 tons. According to scientists, it looks like a giant potato. Immediately after the discovery on February 23, 2012, it was found that science was dealing with an unusual celestial body. The fact is that the asteroid’s orbit is in a 1:1 resonance with the Earth. This means that the period of its revolution around the Sun approximately corresponds to an Earth year.

Duende may remain close to Earth for a long time, but astronomers are not yet ready to predict the behavior of the celestial body in the future. Although, according to current calculations, the probability of Duende colliding with the Earth before February 16, 2020 will not exceed one chance in 14,000.

Immediately after its discovery on December 28, 2005, asteroid YU55 was classified as potentially dangerous. In diameter space object reaches 400 meters. It has an elliptical orbit, which indicates the instability of its trajectory and unpredictability of behavior. In November 2011, the asteroid already alarmed the scientific world by flying up to a dangerous distance of 325 thousand kilometers from the Earth - that is, it turned out to be closer than the Moon. Interestingly, the object is completely black and almost invisible in the night sky, for which astronomers nicknamed it “Invisible”. Scientists then seriously feared that a space alien would enter the earth's atmosphere.

An asteroid with such an intriguing name is a long-time acquaintance of earthlings. It was discovered by German astronomer Carl Witt back in 1898 and turned out to be the first near-Earth asteroid discovered. Eros also became the first asteroid to acquire an artificial satellite. It's about about the NEAR Shoemaker spacecraft, which landed on a celestial body in 2001.

Eros is the largest asteroid in the inner solar system. Its dimensions are amazing – 33 x 13 x 13 km. The average speed of the giant is 24.36 km/s. The shape of the asteroid is similar to a peanut, which affects the uneven distribution of gravity on it. The impact potential of Eros in the event of a collision with the Earth is simply enormous. According to scientists, the consequences of an asteroid hitting our planet will be more catastrophic than after the fall of Chicxulub, which allegedly caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. The only consolation is that the chances of this happening in the foreseeable future are negligible.

Asteroid 2001 WN5 was discovered on November 20, 2001 and later fell into the category of potentially dangerous objects. First of all, one should be wary of the fact that neither the asteroid itself nor its trajectory have been sufficiently studied. According to preliminary data, its diameter can reach 1.5 kilometers. On June 26, 2028, the asteroid will once again approach the Earth, and the cosmic body will approach its minimum distance - 250 thousand km. According to scientists, it can be seen through binoculars. This distance is enough to cause satellites to malfunction.

This asteroid was discovered by Russian astronomer Gennady Borisov on September 16, 2013 using a homemade 20 cm telescope. The object was immediately named almost the most dangerous threat among celestial bodies for the Earth. The diameter of the object is about 400 meters.
The asteroid's approach to our planet is expected on August 26, 2032.

According to some assumptions, the block will sweep just 4 thousand kilometers from the Earth at a speed of 15 km/s. Scientists have calculated that in the event of a collision with the Earth, the explosion energy will be 2.5 thousand megatons of TNT. For example, the power of the largest thermonuclear bomb detonated in the USSR is 50 megatons.
Today, the probability of an asteroid colliding with the Earth is estimated at approximately 1/63,000. However, with further refinement of the orbit, the figure may either increase or decrease.

To date, about 1,500 potentially dangerous astronomical objects have been discovered. NASA calls all asteroids and comets that are larger than 100-150 meters in diameter and can approach Earth closer than 7.5 million kilometers. Four of them are assigned enough high level hazards according to the Palermo scale.

Using the Palermo scale, astronomers calculate how dangerous a particular asteroid approaching our planet is. The indicator is calculated using a special formula: if the result is -2 or less, then the probability of a body colliding with the Earth is practically absent, from -2 to 0 - the situation requires careful observation, from 0 and above - the object is most likely to collide with the planet. There is also the Turin scale, but it is subjective.

During the entire existence of the Palermo scale, only two objects received a value above zero: 89959 2002 NT7 (0.06 points) and 99942 Apophis (1.11 points). After their discovery, astronomers began to closely study the orbits of asteroids. As a result, the possibility of both bodies colliding with the Earth was completely excluded. Additional Research almost always lead to a decrease in the danger rating, as they allow a more detailed study of the object’s trajectory.

Currently, only four asteroids have a hazard rating higher than -2: 2010 GZ60 (-0.81), 29075 1950 DA (-1.42), 101955 Bennu 1999 RQ36 (-1.71) and 410777 2009 FD (-1.78 ). Of course, there are still plenty of objects less than 100 meters in diameter that, in theory, could collide with the Earth, but NASA monitors them less closely - this is an expensive and technically complex undertaking.

Asteroid 2010 GZ60 (diameter – 2000 meters) will approach the Earth 480 times between 2017 and 2116. Some encounters will be quite close - just a few radii of our planet. 29075 1950 DA is slightly smaller (about 1300 meters), but a collision with it will cause catastrophic consequences for humanity - global changes will occur in the biosphere and climate. True, this can only happen in 2880, and even then the probability is very low - approximately 0.33 percent.

101955 Bennu 1999 RQ36 is 490 meters in diameter and will approach Earth 78 times from 2175 to 2199. In the event of a collision with a planet, the force of the explosion will be 1150 megatons of TNT. For comparison: the force of the most powerful explosive device, AN602, was 58 megatons. 410777 2009 FD is considered potentially dangerous until 2198; it will fly closest to Earth in 2185. The diameter of the asteroid is 160 meters.