Process and methods of management decisions.

From this chapter you will learn what a rational management decision is, get an idea of ​​its stages; learn to choose methods for making rational management decisions; learn how management decisions are classified.

Management decision. Approaches to the classification of management decisions

The basis for making effective management decisions is quality information. Features of management decisions:

• validity;
• timeliness;
• complexity of the approach;
• clear formulation of tasks;
• feasibility of execution;
• continuity and inconsistency in relation to previously made decisions.

Since a manager is forced to constantly make decisions during his activities, he accumulates certain experience in this area. Therefore, we can talk about control technology, i.e. a certain system of actions in the field of management when solving any problems.

In many ways, management technology depends on the personal qualities of the leader, his national characteristics, and management features adopted in a particular country.

For example, in the hotel business there are American, French and other management technologies.

But in any case, there is such a thing as a rational management decision. A management decision is a creative act of the subject of management aimed at eliminating problems that have arisen in the object of management. Any management decision goes through three stages. Let's look at them.

The first stage - understanding the problem - includes: collecting information; information analysis; clarification of its relevance; determining the conditions under which the problem will be solved.

The second stage - drawing up a solution plan - includes: developing alternative solutions; comparing them with available resources; assessment of alternative options based on social consequences; assessing them based on economic efficiency; drawing up solution programs; development of a detailed solution plan.

The third stage - implementation of the decision - includes: bringing decisions to specific executors; development of incentive and punishment measures; control over the implementation of decisions.

The manager's work on making a decision consists of a number of stages; determination of management goals; diagnosing the problem; collection of information, both basic and additional; defining criteria and limitations; preparation of solutions, including alternatives; assessment of solution options; selection of the final option.

Decision making is the main link - this is the creative stage.

But making a decision is half the battle. No less important for a manager is the ability to organize the implementation of the decision made and control it.

Decision making is made by the manager and is the determination of the course of action of the management system or its divisions to achieve the goals and objectives set by the system being managed.

So, a management decision is the choice of the best alternative from a number of possible ones, which involves a set of effective actions to improve the organization of enterprise management. There are several views on the classification of management decisions. Let's look at them.

According to one of the classifications, management decisions are divided into general and private.

General management decisions affect the entire enterprise, including production and financial and economic activities. General management decisions determine fundamental changes in the enterprise, as well as further development of production (computerization of production and management processes, transition to the production of new products, reorganization of the enterprise, etc.).

Private management decisions relate to any subsystems that affect current issues (for example, about discipline, about dismissing an employee, about changing the work schedule of a department, etc.),

In addition, a distinction is made between management decisions to influence the external and internal environment of the enterprise.

Decisions to influence the external environment of an enterprise concern the immediate environment, partners, clients, creditors (for example, the need to obtain a loan from a bank).

Decisions to influence the internal environment of the enterprise are related to the managed system (for example, a change in staffing, which will entail the reduction of employees or the development of a new management structure, as a result of which an additional top manager position will appear).

Also, management decisions differ in the period of their validity: for a long period (staffing) and short term (work accident, force majeure, such as an earthquake, hurricane, fire, etc.).

Management decisions can be classified by hierarchy level. This depends on the nature of the issue on which decisions are made and on the competence and right of each level of the hierarchy to make decisions.

Management decisions differ in the degree of structure: weakly structured (unprogrammed) and highly structured (programmed), i.e. resulting from the implementation of a certain sequence of actions or steps. At the same time, the number of alternatives is limited and the choice is made within the directions set by the organization, taking into account regulations, rules, standards, etc. An example is the problem of determining the number of managers for a given controllability standard. Identification of a class of programmed solutions makes it possible to develop standard procedures and program solutions for situations that are repeated with a certain regularity.

Management decisions are also divided according to the number of goals: mono-purpose (single-purpose) and poly-purpose (multi-purpose).

Based on the duration of the action, management decisions are distinguished into strategic (long-term and medium-term), tactical and operational (current). For example, it is known that the number of operational decisions made in organizations significantly exceeds the number of tactical and strategic decisions. As practice shows, the most resource-intensive decisions in terms of time spent are strategic decisions. In organizations of large, medium and small sizes, the time spent on making operational, tactical and strategic decisions is not the same. So, in small enterprises the main share of these costs falls on operational decisions; as the enterprise grows, the time spent on developing a development strategy increases significantly.

Management decisions can be individual or group.

Based on the level of adoption, management decisions are distinguished that affect the organization as a whole, structural divisions of the organization, functional services of the organization, and individual employees.

According to the depth of impact, management decisions can be single-level or multi-level.

The famous American sociologist M. Rubinstein proposed 10 rules that must be followed when making management decisions.

1. Try to get an idea of ​​the problem as a whole before delving into the details.
2. Don't make any hasty decisions until you've considered all your options.
3. Doubt - even the most generally accepted truths should provoke mistrust,
4. Try to look at the problem facing you from a variety of points of view,
5. Look for a model or analogy that will help you better understand the essence of the problem at hand; present it in the form of a diagram or diagram.
6. Ask as many questions as possible - a correctly posed question can sometimes radically change the content of the answer.
7. Don't be satisfied with the first solution that comes to mind. Find its weak points and suggest other solutions,
8. Consult someone before making a final decision.
9. Do not underestimate the importance of your intuition, although the role of logical thinking in analyzing a problem remains the main one.
10. Remember that another person may see the problem very differently.

Decision making methods

Management decision-making methods are specific ways in which a problem can be solved. There are quite a few of them, for example:

• decomposition - presentation of a complex problem as a set of simple questions;
• diagnostics - searching for the most important details in a problem, which are solved first. This method is used when resources are limited.

It is necessary to distinguish between methods of making management decisions based on mathematical modeling and methods based on psychological techniques of working in groups.

Methods for making management decisions based on mathematical modeling

Expert methods for making management decisions.

An expert is a person who is considered by the decision maker or the analytical group conducting the examination to be a sufficiently high-level professional in some matter. Experts are invited to conduct an examination.

Expertise is the carrying out by a group of competent specialists of measuring certain characteristics in order to prepare a decision. Expertise reduces the risk of making an erroneous decision. Typical problems requiring examination; determining the goals facing the management object (searching for new markets, changing the management structure); forecasting; scenario development; generating alternative solutions; making collective decisions, etc.

Experts identify the following main stages of examination:

• formulation of the purpose of the examination;
• construction of assessment objects or their characteristics (this stage may not exist, but this means that it has simply already been completed);
• formation of an expert group;
• determining the method of expert assessment and the way experts express their assessments;
• conducting an examination;
• processing and analysis of its results;
• repeated rounds of examination, if there is a need to clarify or converge the experts’ opinions;
• generation of recommendations.

When conducting examinations, expert assessments are used, which come in several types. Let us give a brief description of each type of expert assessment.

Quantitative expression of preference (assessment) - comparison of the values ​​of different assessments according to the principle; by how much or how many times one estimate is greater than another.

The following scales are used: relationships (for example, when comparing the ratio of car brands to price); intervals (for example, the sign “date of release” or temperature on different temperature scales); differences (for example, chronology); absolute (for example, the number of students in the classroom). Quantitative assessments usually correspond to objective measurements of objective indicators.

Scores characterize subjective opinions. An example is school grades. The values ​​of the point scale are a limited series of numbers equidistant from each other. There are two types of scoring. Assessments of the first type are made according to an objective criterion, according to a generally accepted standard. These include grades in sports refereeing or rules for assigning work ranks - these are grades on a point scale. Point assessments of the second type are assessments made in cases where generally accepted assessment criteria are absent. In this case, we talk about an ordinal (or rank) scale. Ratings made on a ranking scale are compared only in terms of the “more-less” ratio. The ranking scale is used in cooking when comparing the taste of different dishes.

Ranking is the ordering of objects in descending order of their preference. In this case, it is allowed to indicate the equivalence of certain objects (for example, determining the winners of a competition, identifying the best, reliable banks).

Pairwise comparison - indicating the preferred object for each pair of objects. Sometimes it is permissible to declare both objects as equivalent or incomparable (for example, chocolate is preferable to ice cream, chocolate is preferable to a cake, ice cream is preferable to a cake).

Verbal-numeric scales are used to obtain and process qualitative expert information using quantitative methods.

The Delphi method got its name from the Greek city of Delphi, whose priests were famous for their ability to predict the future (Delphic oracles). The method is characterized by its main features: anonymity, regulated feedback (ELM, group response. Anonymity is achieved by using special questionnaires or other methods of individual questioning. Regulated feedback is carried out by conducting several rounds of the survey. The results of each round are processed using statistical methods and reported to experts. The result of processing individual assessments is group assessments. The method is based on the following premises:

• the questions posed must allow answers in the form of numbers;
• experts must be sufficiently informed;
• Each expert's answer must be justified by him.

Below is a description of an example use of the Delphi method.

First tour. The first questionnaire is distributed to the experts who do not know each other. It can allow any answers to the questions posed in it related to solving the problem. The purpose of this questionnaire is to compile a list of events for forecasting in some area of ​​the economy or branch of the national economy, science and technology, etc. The organizer of the examination combines the forecasts received. The resulting combined list of events becomes the basis of the second questionnaire.

Second round. Experts estimate the timing of events and give reasons why they consider their assessments correct. Based on the assessments made and their justifications, the organizer of the examination, sometimes together with mathematicians, carries out statistical processing of the data obtained, groups the opinions of experts, and studies extreme points of view. The results of this work of the organizer are communicated to experts who can change their opinion (the work of experts is carried out anonymously). Usually the opinion of a minority of experts (extreme points of view) is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or refute it.

Third round. The experts are given a third questionnaire, which contains a list of events, statistical characteristics, dates of occurrence of events, summary data (arguments) about the reasons for earlier or later assessments. Experts must consider all arguments; formulate new estimates of the expected date of occurrence of each event; justify your point of view if it deviates significantly from the group’s; anonymously comment on opposing opinions. Revised estimates and new arguments are returned to the organizer, who processes them again, sums up all the arguments and prepares a new forecast on this basis.

Fourth round. Experts get acquainted with the new group forecast, arguments, criticisms and make a new forecast. If the group still cannot come to a consensus and the organizer is interested in the arguments of both sides, then he can gather experts for a face-to-face discussion.

If the majority does not agree with the opinion of the organizer, his arguments are transferred to the minority and analyzed. This process is repeated until all experts agree on the same opinion, or groups are identified that do not change their decision.

Non-expert methods of making management decisions. The non-specialist method is a method in which the issue is solved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are specialists in related fields.

Linear programming is a method that solves optimization problems in which the objective function and functional constraints are linear functions with respect to variables that take any value from a certain set of values. One example of linear programming problems is the transportation problem.

Simulation modeling is a method of forming a decision in which the decision maker comes to a reasonable compromise in the values ​​of various criteria. In this case, the computer, according to a given program, simulates and reproduces the flow of the process under study with several possible control options assigned to it, the results obtained are analyzed and evaluated.

The probability theory method is a non-expert method.

The game theory method is a method in which problems are solved under conditions of complete uncertainty. This means the presence of conditions under which the process of carrying out an operation is uncertain or the enemy is consciously counteracting, or there are no clear and precise goals and objectives of the operation. The consequence of this uncertainty is that the success of an operation depends not only on the decisions of the people making them, but also on the decisions or actions of other people. Most often, this method is used to resolve conflict situations. Thus, game theory is the theory of mathematical models of decision-making under conflict conditions. The problems that can be solved using the game theory method include the following: trading operations; analysis and design of hierarchical management structures and economic mechanisms; competitive fight. Game theory is designed to provide solutions to games that are played only once. In the event that the situation repeats, it is more appropriate to use statistical methods.

The method of analogies is the search for possible solutions to problems based on borrowing from other management objects.

Methods for making management decisions based on creative thinking (psychological methods).

The creative thinking process has five stages.

1. Preparation - collecting factual data. Convergent (analytical) thinking is used. The problem is defined from different angles, in different formulations,
2. Mental effort - use of divergent; thinking that leads either to a possible solution to the problem or to frustration (disappointment), (Frustration is an important factor, it is usually followed by the development of really successful ideas.)
3. Incubation - the problem remains in the subconscious while the person is doing other things. During this time, emotional inhibition and resistance to new ideas weakens, and the opportunity arises to perceive new ideas that can; arise during this time.
4. Insight is a “flash” that makes it possible to solve the problem at hand.
5. Evaluation - analysis of all ideas obtained in previous stages.

The preparation and evaluation stages require analytical thinking, and mental effort, incubation and insight require creative freedom and uninhibitedness.

The expression of all sorts of crazy ideas is encouraged; the goal of the methods used is the quantity of ideas, not the quality. With an abundance of ideas, new ideas become developments of previously expressed ones. The key to successful creative thinking is to intelligently and purposefully separate the processes of idea generation and evaluation.

One of the most common methods of creative thinking for a manager is the “Brainstorming” method, or “brainstorming”. Unlike methods aimed at finding the only correct solution to a problem, the meaning of the “Brainstorming” method is to offer employees the maximum number of ideas without evaluating or selecting them.

A manager can use brainstorming:

• to find an innovative solution;
• at the beginning of a meeting to “break the ice” between participants;
• to strengthen the team.

There are two ways to brainstorm; oral and written. Preference is given to oral, as it takes less time, but written is more thorough.

To conduct a successful Brainstorming session, a manager must follow certain rules:

• Strict time frames must be adhered to. This means that it should be short (30 minutes for the oral method, 1 hour for the written method);
• the number of participants should be optimal: 6-12 people. (with the oral method) and 8-12 people. (in written form);
• you need to involve as many different people as possible, but you should remember that the presence of senior management can interfere;
• It is better to sit in a semicircle and not at tables (with the oral method) or at tables arranged in the form of some Latin letter (with the written method). The chairman can sit anywhere, and the administrator must stand at the poster (if the oral method is used). These functions can be performed by one person (in writing).

As practice shows, in one session lasting 1 hour you can get more than 200 ideas (in writing); in one oral session lasting 30 minutes, an experienced group can put forward up to 200 ideas.

The problem is considered and ideas are generated in an atmosphere of relaxation and ease. Judgment is avoided and all ideas, especially crazy ones, are encouraged. It is precisely such ideas that, in essence, serve as starting points for developing something new that is of great practical importance. Ideas are freely expressed and there is a friendly exchange of opinions.

The advantage of this method is that it is free from bias, routine, stereotypes in thinking, fear of criticism and skepticism from management. Experience with this method shows that it is easier for non-experts to generate ideas because they are able to think outside the box. All ideas and suggestions are taken into account regardless of authorship.

The main goal is to develop the maximum possible number of options for solving the problem.

The main disadvantage of the Brainstorming method is the fact that you have to evaluate all the ideas, and many of them are quite stupid or completely irrelevant to the issue at hand, and they have to be discarded in order to retain the few that are really valuable.

In the oral method, the organizer, who is also the chairman, is obliged to:

• stop the discussion if everyone is talking at the same time;
• allow “quiet” participants to speak;
• do not allow statements to be evaluated;
• at different stages of the meeting, formulate the problem statement again and again;
• ensure that the administrator writes down every new idea;
• have ready-made proposals in case of pauses;
• review ideas when they run dry;
• end the meeting. The administrator is obliged;
• write down every idea;
• compile their summary for inclusion in the general list;
• asking participants what exactly they mean;
• never ignore an idea, even if you feel that it repeats something previously expressed;
• do not express your ideas.

When implementing this method in writing, the organizer at the stage of presenting information and instruction must do the following:

• choose the right meeting location and equipment;
• select a group of participants with a broad outlook. At the same time, it is not recommended to invite those who are overly skeptical. You cannot invite outside observers, as well as employees who differ greatly in their official status;
• familiarize new participants with the rules. The most important requirement is not to criticize others. Another requirement is to express as many ideas as possible. In addition, it is necessary to overcome the idea that there is only one correct solution. If the rules are broken, the presenter reminds them of them;
• take care of how the participants sit - it is necessary to place them at a table or tables in the form of some Latin letter or facing each other;
• pay attention to the correct formulation of problems;
• do not interfere in the discussion;
• do not disrupt the course of brainstorming with your own comments;
• know the principles of this method. Thus, it is known that before brainstorming itself there must be a certain period of “entry” and that after the initial flow of ideas expressed, a decline occurs, etc.;
• use time wisely. Stages of “Brainstorming”:
• characteristics of the problem being analyzed;
• putting forward the maximum possible number of solutions, even the most, at first glance, unnatural ones;
• selection of the most rational ideas for further development;
• developing alternative solutions to a problem, which usually takes up most of the time.

The sequence of actions of the manager-instructor when organizing a “Brainstorm”:

• statement of the problem, the Instructor should highlight the goals of the Brainstorming and the goals of solving the problem. He should list the existing resource limitations and describe the achievements that have already been made in this area;
• proposal of ideas. First, there should be an individual approach, in which each participant thinks independently, followed by a group stage, during which participants express a variety of thoughts;
• selection of ideas by manager-instructor. The proposed ideas are studied and selected. Ideas are selected for subsequent detailing and elaboration. These ideas are transformed into the most convenient form for discussion;
• organization of in-depth development of selected ideas by all brainstorming participants. At this stage, detailed development of constructive conclusions and proposals occurs.

The Synectics method is widely used in management. With this method, similar to the previous one, the problem is considered by a group of about 9 people. The “client”, who is also a manager-instructor, puts forward a problem, explains it, and the “students)> offer a solution to it. For several minutes the “client” analyzes it and says what he likes about it and what he doesn’t. New proposals are then put forward and analyzed until a possible solution is found. The periods of time during which this method is carried out are called "sessions".

Another method of creative thinking for a manager when making decisions is “Partitioning”. With this method, a list of the main characteristics of an idea or object is compiled and each of them is considered with the aim of improvement. Typically this method is used in relation to material (material) objects. Each characteristic is studied and changes are proposed.

A widely used method of creative thinking is a method called “Forced Relationships.” This method takes objects or ideas and asks the question: “How many different combinations of them are possible to obtain a new object or idea?” This method is used, for example, in the development of new furniture models.

The “Morphological Analysis” method is very well known and widely used today. With this method, all the variables are entered into a matrix and an attempt is made to combine them in a new way. For example, if a new form of transport is needed, a list of variables can be compiled. In a simplified form, the matrix has the following form: the left column lists the objects of influence, and the top line lists possible methods of influence (events). Then the free cells are filled with possible effects on the object by any variants of this method. The advantage of this method is that it is possible to purposefully form both objects of influence and methods of influence, and then systematically explore various options.

Another method used in management is “Lateral Thinking and RO”. If a problem is studied analytically and it is necessary to dive deeper and deeper into it and go into greater detail, we are talking about vertical thinking. Creative thinking includes consideration of all possibilities, including those that seem to go beyond the boundaries of a given area - this is lateral, or lateral thinking. Management specialist E. De Bono recommended not to rush to judgment and preface the idea with the letters “RO”, which means; “Give this idea a chance, don’t kill it too quickly, it may lead to useful ideas.”

A common method used in management is the “Questionnaire” method. These sheets can serve as idea indexes. They may relate to a specific area of ​​activity of the enterprise or be general, for example: marketing, design, finance, etc. The so-called Osborne questionnaire is widely used. Its main subheadings are the following: use for another purpose, adapt, modify, reduce, replace, reorganize, combine. Managers should be aware that questionnaires should be used with caution as they can stifle creativity by limiting the areas of inquiry.

The “Day Dreams” method. If long-term intensive work on a problem does not provide an innovative solution, then in such a situation complete relaxation and daydreaming can lead to creative insight.

The "Group Genius" method. Allows you to bring together in one group several individuals who usually use different types of creative thinking, forming a group capable of combining different methods.

When carrying out all of the above methods, four rules must be observed.

1. Refrain from premature judgments - exclude premature criticism of any idea.
2. Be relaxed.
3. Try to increase the number of ideas.
4. Combine and improve ideas expressed by others (“cross-pollination”).

Levels of Decision Making

The differences that exist in the types of decisions and the differences in the difficulty of the problems to be solved determine the level of decision making. M. Woodcock and D. Francis identify four levels of decision making, each of which requires certain management skills; routine, selective, adaptive; innovative. The choice of each of them is determined by the specific job requirements and tasks imposed on the manager’s abilities. ^

The first level is routine. Decisions made on this; level, represent ordinary routine decisions. As a rule, the manager has a specific program on how to recognize the situation and what decision to make. In this case, the manager behaves like a computer. Its function is to “feel” and identify the situation, and then take responsibility for initiating certain actions. A leader must have instinct, correctly interpret existing indications of a particular situation, act logically, make the right decisions, show decisiveness, | ensure effective action at the right time. This level does not require a creative approach, since all actions and procedures are prescribed in advance. The key skills of the routine level are: strict adherence to procedure, reasonable assessment of the situation, humane leadership, balance of control and motivation. ,

The second level is selective. This level is already demanding; initiative and freedom of action, but only within certain limits. The manager is faced with a range of possible solutions, and his task is to evaluate the merits of such solutions and to select from a number of well-developed alternative courses of action those that best suit the given problem. Success and effectiveness depend on the manager's ability to choose a course of action. The key skills at this level are: goal setting, planning, the relationship between analysis and development, information analysis.

The third level is adaptation. The manager must come up with a solution that may be completely new. The manager has before him a certain set of proven possibilities and some new ideas. Only personal initiative and the ability to make a breakthrough into the unknown can determine the success of the manager’s activities.

Key skills at the adaptation level: identifying problems, systematically solving problems, creating working groups, analyzing possible risks.

The fourth level, the most difficult, is innovative. The most complex problems are solved at this level. A completely new approach is required on the part of the manager. This may be a search for a solution to a problem that was previously poorly understood or that requires new ideas and methods to solve. A leader must be able to find ways to understand completely unexpected and unpredictable problems, develop the skill and ability to think in new ways. The most modern and difficult problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology to be solved. The key skills of the innovation level are: creative management, strategic planning, system development.

Each of the decision-making levels we have considered imposes its own requirements on managerial qualifications.

RF STATE COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION

TOMSK ORDER OF THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION

AND ORDER OF THE RED BANNER OF LABOR

STATE UNIVERSITY NAMED AFTER V.V.KUIBYSHEVA

DEPARTMENT OF SYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Test

by subject: Management

on the topic of: Methods for making managerial decisions

Executor: correspondence student

5th year student at the Faculty of Economics

specialist. “Finance and Credit”

Velikorichanin Alexander Vitalievich

Head: Associate Professor Nadezhda Aleksandrovna Telegina

Tomsk – 1999

INTRODUCTION......................................................... ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........ 3

1. MAIN STAGES OF PREPARATION FOR DECISION MAKING.................................................... ........................................................ .............. 4

2. METHODS OF MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.................................................... ........................................................ ....................... 4

3. DECISION MAKING IN COMPLEX SITUATIONS AND THE DIFFICULTIES OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION...................................................... ..... 5

3.1. Problems of unique choice................................................... ........................................................ ........................................................ ........... 5

3.2. Organizational systems for solving problems of choice.................................................................... ........................................................ ...................... 5

4. SYSTEM APPROACH TO MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING.................................................... ............................................... 6

5.CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PROCESS OF MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN THE BRANCH OF SBERBANK OF THE RF......... 7

6.SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVING DECISION-MAKING PROCEDURES................................................... ...................... 7

CONCLUSION................................................... ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ .. 8

BIBLIOGRAPHY............................................... ........................................................ ........................................................ 9

Decision-making processes, understood as the choice of one of several possible alternatives, permeate all human life. We make most decisions without thinking, since there is an automaticity of behavior developed by many years of practice. There are decisions to which we attach little importance, and therefore we think little when making a choice. And finally, there are problems of choice, solving which a person experiences painful thoughts. As a rule, these problems are of an exceptionally non-recurring nature and are associated with the consideration of a number of alternatives. In such problems, what is new is either the object of choice or the setting in which the choice is made. Such decision problems are called unique choice problems.

There are many different unique selection problems. First of all, let us highlight problems in which, in principle, a rational, understandable to other people, statement of the reasons that led to the choice of one of the alternatives can be found (note that many human, “everyday” problems of choice do not fall under this definition). The most characteristic problems of rational choice are the problems that arise for people working in various administrative services - when managing organizations and a set of organizations. Any employee of the administrative apparatus must be rational, at least in order to be able to explain to others the logical reasons for his choice.

The problems of choosing a rational management decision in unique situations characteristic of administrative activities (choosing a capital investment plan, choosing research and development projects, choosing a product production plan, choosing a long-term enterprise development plan, etc.) have always been of interest to many specialists and researchers. The list of such problems is quite extensive, but they all have the following common features:

· uniqueness, unrepeatability of the situation of choice;

· the nature of the alternatives being considered is difficult to evaluate;

· insufficient certainty of the consequences of decisions made;

· the presence of a set of heterogeneous factors that should be taken into account;

· presence of a person or group of people responsible for making decisions.

Problems of rational choice in unique situations have always existed, but for a number of reasons their importance has increased significantly in recent decades. First of all, the dynamism of the environment has sharply increased and the period of time during which previously made decisions remain correct has decreased. Secondly, the development of science and technology has led to the emergence of a large number of alternative choices. Thirdly, the complexity of each of the decision options has increased. Fourth, the interdependence of various decisions and their consequences has increased. As a result of all this, the difficulty of rationally solving unique choice problems has increased dramatically. These problems have become significantly more complex, and people, heads of organizations, are encountering them more and more often. In the future, we can expect an even greater variety of difficult and challenging unique choice problems.

How are such problems usually solved? We know from history that experienced leaders are able to make the best use of their experience and intuition. In situations where unique decisions are made, there is always a lack of information, which can only be covered by believing in one of the possible hypotheses. Experienced managers usually use all the useful advice, but act in their own way, based on their model of the development of future events, their assessment of certain individuals. Problems of making unique decisions have always required a creative approach, insight; in other words, rational choice in unique situations is inherently a special art.

Management decision- this is a creative act of the subject of management, aimed at eliminating the problems that have arisen in the subject of management. Any management decision goes through three stages:

1. Understanding the problem

Collection of information;

Analysis of the information received;

Determining relevance;

Clarification and determination of the conditions under which this problem will be solved.

2. Drawing up a solution plan.

Development of alternative solutions;

Comparison of alternative solutions with available resources;

Assessment of alternative options based on social consequences;

Evaluation of alternative options based on economic efficiency;

Drawing up solution programs;

Development and preparation of a detailed solution plan.

3. Implementation of the decision.

¨ Bringing decisions to specific executors;

¨ Development of measures of rewards and punishments;

¨ Monitoring the implementation of decisions.

Methods - these are specific ways in which a problem can be solved.

2. Diagnostics - Search for the most important details in the problem, which are solved first. Used when resources are limited;

3. Expert assessments - Any ideas are formed, considered, evaluated, compared;

4. Delphi method - Experts who do not know each other are given questions related to solving the problem, the opinion of a minority of experts is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or reject it. If the majority disagrees, then their arguments are passed on to the minority and analyzed there. This process is repeated until all experts come to the same opinion, or until groups are identified that do not change their decision. This method is used to achieve efficiency;

5. Non-specialist method - The issue is resolved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are specialists in related fields;

6. Linear programming;

7. Simulation modeling;

8. Probability theory method;

9. Game theory method - Problems are solved under conditions of complete uncertainty;

10. Method of analogies - Search for possible solutions to problems based on borrowing from other management objects.

Among the many sonorous names that our century has earned, another name seems much more prosaic at first glance: the century of administrative management. However, only at first glance, since the size and influence of the administrative apparatus in industrialized countries is growing steadily, despite numerous decisions about staff reductions and reorganizations, despite the negative reaction of public opinion.

Three groups are conventionally distinguished:

I. Informal methods (heuristic) - based on the analytical abilities of managers. This is a set of logical techniques and techniques for selecting optimal solutions through theoretical comparison of alternatives, taking into account accumulated experience. Based mainly on the manager’s intuition, their advantage is efficiency; disadvantage - making an erroneous (ineffective) decision, since intuition can fail.

For informal methods, sources are used:

1) Verbal (oral) information - most often used in analyzing the external environment. Sources: Radio and television broadcasts, consumers, suppliers, competitors, sales meetings, professional organizations, lawyers, accountants and financial auditors, consultants.

2) Written information - sources: newspapers, trade magazines, newsletters, professional magazines, annual reports.

3) Industrial espionage - obtaining information illegally (collecting data on the actions of competitors and then using it to reformulate the goals of the organization).

II. Collective methods of discussion and decision making.

Basic moments:

1) The circle of persons participating in this procedure is determined;

2) The main criteria for the formation of such a group:

Competence;

Ability to solve creative problems;

Constructive thinking;

Communication skills.

3) Forms of group work: meeting, meeting, work in a commission, etc.

The most common method of collective preparation of management decisions is: “Brain attack” or “Brainstorming” (joint generation of ideas and subsequent decision-making). It is used in cases where there is a minimum of information about the problem being solved and a short time frame for its solution has been established.

There are two ways to conduct a “Brainstorm” - oral and written. Preference is given to the oral method, as it takes less time, but the written method is more thorough.

A variation of the “Brainstorming” method - the opinion of the jury. The essence: specialists from various fields of activity interacting with each other are involved in the discussion of the problem (for example: managers of the production, commercial and financial divisions of the company are involved in the decision to release a new product). The use of the method helps generate new ideas and alternatives.

The “Delphi” method (the name comes from the Greek city “Delphi”, famous for the sages who lived there - predictors of the future) is a multi-level questioning procedure. After each round, the data is finalized, and the results are reported to the experts, indicating the location of the scores. After the assessments have stabilized, the survey is stopped and the decision proposed by the experts or an adjusted one is adopted.

Expert assessment methods are the study of complex special issues at the stage of developing management decisions by persons with special knowledge and experience in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations and assessments. The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document, it records economic research and its results, for example, it is used: when predicting trends in the development of the trading system, when assessing alternative solutions.

III. Quantitative methods.

It is based on a scientific and practical approach, which involves choosing optimal solutions by processing large amounts of information using a computer.

1) Time series analysis - based on the assumption that what happened in the past provides a fairly good approximation in estimating the future. This method of analysis is often used to evaluate:

Demand for goods and services,

Estimates of inventory requirements,

Sales structure forecasting,

Personnel needs.

2) Cause-and-effect modeling. The most ingenious and mathematically complex quantitative method. It is an attempt to predict what will happen in similar situations by examining the statistical relationship between the factor in question and other variables.

Example: forecasting demand - level of personal income, demographic changes, emergence of new competitors, etc.

3) Game theory - a method of modeling, assessing the impact of a decision on competitors (originally developed by the military to take into account the actions of opponents in the strategy).

Example: if, using game theory, the management of a trading company comes to the conclusion that if the price of a product increases, competitors will not do the same, then it is advisable to abandon the decision to increase prices so as not to be at a disadvantage.

4) Mathematical modeling. They are used in cases where management decisions are made on the basis of extensive digital information.

Questions for consolidation:

1. What refers to informal methods of making management decisions?

2. What sources are used in informal decision-making methods?

3. What are the main points of quantitative decision making methods?

4. When to use the Brainstorming method

5. What is the basis of quantitative methods for making management decisions?

1. What three groups of methods for making management decisions exist? (indicate one incorrect answer):

A) informal methods (heuristic)

B) collective methods of discussion and decision making

B) qualitative methods

D) quantitative methods

Please indicate one correct answer:

2. Informal methods (heuristic):

3. Collective methods of discussion and decision-making:

A) are based on the joint generation of ideas and subsequent decision-making

B) are based on the study of complex special issues at the stage of developing management decisions

C) are based on the selection of optimal solutions by processing them using a computer

D) are based on the analytical abilities of managers

Solution is a choice of alternative. The ability to make management decisions develops with experience. We make daily decisions without systematic thought. We think through long-term decisions in life. In management, decision making is a systematic process. The reasons for this are the responsibility for making decisions, the consequences for the entire company.

Programmed organizational decision is the result of implementing a sequence of steps and actions. Unprogrammed decisions arise when it is impossible to formulate a sequence of necessary steps in advance. For example, how to improve product quality and sales volume.

Compromises. Almost all management decisions have negative consequences. It is necessary to take into account the possible consequences on all parts of the organization as a system (systems approach). The leader must understand that unmade decisions and “vane” tactics have even worse results than making a bad decision.

Decision making approaches:

• difficult to make good decisions;
• A person who makes decisions is guided, among other things, by feelings; sometimes there is no logic in decisions.

There are three main types of management decisions made:

• intuitive decisions are based on the feeling that the choice has been made correctly. According to many successful managers, many decisions (up to 80%) are made based on intuition;
• Judgment-based management decisions are choices driven by knowledge and past experience. Advantages: speed and low cost of adoption. But fear of new areas of activity can hinder the development of a company;
• rational decisions are justified through an objective analytical process rather than relying on past experience.

Stages of a rational management decision

• Diagnosis of the problem. A problem is not only an unresolved issue, but also an opportunity. The information must be relevant—relevant, relevant.
• Formulation of restrictions and criteria for making management decisions. Constraints are the availability of resources from the manager and the organization to make decisions realistic. The manager must have the authority to make this decision. Criteria are the standards by which alternative choices are to be evaluated. The criteria can be quantitative or qualitative. An example is choosing (purchasing) a car.
• Identifying alternatives. The time and cost of the selection process must be taken into account.
• Evaluation of alternatives. Weighted average valuation method - cost (profit) of alternative projects. Point method. Risk accounting.
• Selecting an alternative. Finding the optimal (maximizing solution) is difficult; usually a satisfactory solution is selected.
• Implementation and feedback. Coordination of the obtained results with the expected ones.

Factors influencing the decision-making process

• Personal assessments of the leader. Subjective opinion about priority tasks, emphasis, for example, on economic problems rather than social ones.
• Risk and uncertainty. Environmental factors. Opportunities for reducing uncertainty: obtaining additional information or acting on experience.
• Time. Success will not come immediately.
• Cost of information. The costs of information must be covered by the income from its use and implementation. More information is not necessarily better.
• Interrelation of decisions. Systems approach.

Decision making methods

Procedures such as scientific method, which consists of the following steps:

• observation - collection and analysis of information;
• formulation of a hypothesis (assumption). BCG matrix - company size / profit;
• verification - confirmation of the reliability of the hypothesis.

The main methods of decision making include:

• mathematical expectation (payment matrix). Expected value of the indicator;
• decision tree;
• modeling. A model is a smaller, simplified copy of reality. The need for modeling is due to the complexity of processes, reducing the risks of implementation directly into practice, and the possibility of forecasts.

Model types:

• physical model - an enlarged or reduced display of the object under study. Enterprise management structure;
• analog model - replaces the object under study with an analogue object that behaves like a real object. Graph of the dependence of unit costs on production volume;
• mathematical model. Symbols and notations are used to describe the properties of an object and formula.

Methods for predicting rational management decisions

1. Informal information. Gossip. Industrial espionage.

2. Quantitative methods:

Time series analysis. Trends.

Task: Determine the volume of purchases of hamburgers in December, if over the past 5 years demand in December has fallen by an average of 10% compared to November, and the volume of hamburger sales in a restaurant has grown by an average of 20% per year over the past 5 years.

Correlation and regression analysis. Correlation coefficient.

3. Qualitative methods:

• jury opinion. "Brainstorm";
• consumer expectation model. Based on the forecast of demand changes;
• method of expert assessments. . The results of the expert survey are returned to them for discussion 3-4 times. In this way, expert agreement is sought.

One of the indicators of a manager’s performance is his ability to make the right decisions. While performing the four functions of management (planning, motivating and controlling), managers deal with a constant flow of decisions regarding each of them. Making decisions is a creative process in the activities of managers.

Decision making is characterized as:

• conscious and purposeful, carried out by a person;
• behavior based on facts and value orientations;
• the process of interaction between members of the organization;
• selection of alternatives within the social and political state of the organizational environment;
• part of the overall management process;
• a permanent part of a manager's daily work;
• start of all other control functions.

A management decision should be understood as a creative, volitional action of a management subject based on knowledge of the laws of functioning of the management system and analysis of information about its state at a certain point in time, consisting in choosing a goal, program and methods of action of the team to resolve the problem.

Principles of management decision making

There are 10 principles that should be followed when making any decisions:

• Before going into details, try to imagine the problem as a whole.
• Don't make a decision until you've considered all your options.
• Doubt it.
• Try to look at the problem from different points of view.
• Look for a model or analogy that will help you better understand the essence of the problem being solved.
• Ask as many questions as possible.
• Don't be satisfied with the first solution that comes to mind.
• Before making a final decision, listen to the opinions of others.
• Don't neglect your feelings.
• Remember that each person looks at emerging problems from his own point of view.

Requirements for management decisions

Each management decision made in the management system in accordance with its purpose must meet the following requirements:

• have a clear goal (otherwise it is impossible to make informed rational decisions);
• be justified, i.e. contain a quantitative, calculated basis that explains the motive for choosing this particular solution from a number of other possible ones;
• have an addressee and deadlines, i.e. have a focus on specific executors and specific dates for the execution of decisions;
• be consistent, i.e. fully consistent with both internal and external circumstances, as well as with previous and upcoming decisions;
• to be competent, i.e. rely on the requirements of legal acts, regulations, instructions and orders of managers, and also take into account the responsibilities and rights of management and subordinates;
• be effective, i.e. the best possible ratio of the expected outcome to the costs;
• be specific, i.e. answer questions about how, when and where to act;
• be timely, i.e. be made when the implementation of this decision can still lead to the set goal;
• have sufficient completeness, brevity, clarity, and be understandable to performers without any additional clarifications or explanations.

Approaches to management decision making

A manager in his work must distinguish between types of decisions, and the organization as a whole must have a certain approach to decision making. In this regard, there are

Centralized approach (encourages as many decisions as possible to be made at the top management level) and decentralized approach (encourages managers to delegate decision-making responsibilities to the lowest management level)

Group approach (a manager and one or more employees work together on a problem) and individual approach (decision making by the manager alone)

The “participatory system” approach (the manager interviews the people who will be involved in making a decision, but reserves the right to have the final say) and the “non-participatory system” approach (managers do not allow outside participation in the decision-making system and prefer to collect information, evaluate alternatives and make decisions without involving others)

Democratic approach (decisions are made in favor of the majority) and deliberative approach (many people are involved in decision making and a compromise is sought between all opinions)

Stages of management decision making

1. Understanding the problem (collecting information, determining its relevance, determining the conditions under which this problem will be solved).
2. Drawing up a solution plan (development of alternative solution options, comparison of solution options with available resources, assessment of alternative solution options for social consequences, assessment of alternative solution options for economic efficiency, drawing up solution programs, development and preparation of a detailed solution plan).
3. Implementation of decisions (communicating decisions to specific executors, developing measures of rewards and punishments, monitoring the implementation of decisions).

Development and decision making process

The process of developing a solution is an important factor in ensuring its quality and largely determines the cost of time and money. The person leading the development of the solution must: identify the problem and tasks in solving it, the goals of the solution and ways to achieve it, the distribution of work to prepare the solution, identify the people responsible for their implementation.

The traditional management solution development process includes the following steps:

1. Detection and formulation of the problem. At the origin of any solution there is a problematic situation that requires its solution.
2. Collection of information about the problem to be solved.
3. Development of a criterion for assessing the effectiveness of a solution. The optimal solution option is an option that allows you to effectively solve the problem in accordance with the developed criterion. There can be many ineffective and rational solutions, but there is only one optimal solution.
4. Development of alternative solutions, analysis of possible solutions. The analysis must be carried out using a set of effect parameters corresponding to each option, and the rules for analyzing possible solutions are predetermined by a given criterion for assessing effectiveness. Any decision can be assessed using at least three effect parameters: target effect (profit, labor productivity, etc.); costs to obtain this effect (time, other resources); security.
   • how realistic is the alternative given the set goals and resources;
   • what is the risk of additional problems;
   • what effect the alternative will bring in other areas of the organization, i.e. find out the opinions of subordinates.

When choosing an alternative, the manager must understand:

5. Implementation of the optimal solution. The implementation of the solution may involve the following two stages:
   • bringing the decision to the executors;
   • organization of execution of the decision.
   • If the decision was not clearly formulated by the manager;
   • If the decision was clearly and clearly formulated, but the performer did not understand it well;
   • The decision was clearly formulated, and the performer understood it well, but he did not have the necessary conditions and means to implement it;
   • The decision was correctly formulated, the performer understood it and had all the necessary means to implement it, but he did not have internal agreement with the solution proposed by the manager. In this case, the contractor may have his own, more effective, but in his opinion, solution to this problem.

Bringing decisions to the executors usually begins with dividing the decision into group and individual tasks and selecting executors. As a result, each employee receives a specific task of his own, which is directly dependent on his job responsibilities and a number of other objective and subjective factors. It is believed that the ability to delegate tasks to performers is the main source of the effectiveness of the decision made. In this regard, there are four main reasons for non-compliance with decisions:

6. Control over the process of implementing the decision. It takes the form of feedback, through which you can obtain information about the implementation of the decision and the organization’s achievement of its goals.

   The main purpose of control is the timely detection of possible deviations from a given program for implementing a decision, as well as the timely adoption of measures to eliminate them. In the process of control, the initial goals of the organization can be modified, clarified and changed taking into account additional information received about the implementation of decisions made. Those. The main task of control is to promptly identify and predict expected deviations from a given program for the implementation of management decisions.

With the help of control, deviations from the tasks formulated in decisions are not only identified, but the reasons for these deviations are also determined.

METHODS OF MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

The number of different specific methods and models is almost as large as the number of management problems for which they were developed.

GAME THEORY - modeling the assessment of the impact of a decision made under conditions of uncertainty, for example, on competitors.

QUEUING THEORY MODELS or the optimal service model is used to determine the optimal number of service channels in relation to the demand for them.

INVENTORY MANAGEMENT MODELS are used to determine when orders for resources are placed and their quantities, as well as the mass of finished products in warehouses.

LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL – determining the optimal way to allocate scarce resources in the presence of competing needs.

DECISION TREE is a model presented in graphical form. All the steps that need to be considered when evaluating various alternatives are plotted on a graph.

SIMULATION MODELING is the process of creating a model and its experimental application to determine changes in the real situation.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS – methods for assessing costs and economic benefits, as well as the relative profitability of an enterprise. For example, break-even analysis.

The payment matrix is ​​one of the methods of statistical decision theory, a method that can assist a manager in choosing one of several options.

FORECASTING is a method that uses both past experience and current assumptions about the future to determine it.

Delphi method - experts who do not know each other are given questions related to solving a problem, the opinion of a minority of experts is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or reject it. If the majority disagrees, then their arguments are passed on to the minority and analyzed there. This process is repeated until all experts come to the same opinion, or until groups are identified that do not change their decision. This method is used to achieve efficiency.